So I'm going to get this started. With the HOF Game this weekend, we need to get the preseason predictions on the board so we can see just how right or wrong we all were in February. I'll give my predictions and a spread in parenthesis, and then explain the reasoning.
San Diego Chargers: 10-6 (11-5/9-7) AFC West Champions (lose in first round of the playoffs) - The Good: This is still a team led by Phillip Rivers and Antonio Gates. They have solid talent and leadership on offense and should remain the class of the division. The Bad: There doesn't appear to be a significant improvement of talent on defense. And there is now a gaping hole at LT where the team was once very solid. The Ugly: The contract disputes going on in SD could be a serious cause of concern. Replacements have been named but are not of the same caliber as the players they are replacing. This team will also need solid production from rookies Ryan Mathews and Cam Thomas.
Oakland Raiders: 8-8 (9-7/7-9) 2nd Place AFC West (miss the playoffs) - The Good: For the first time in a while the Raiders have had a good offseason. Adding a serviceable QB and DT in free agency makes them stronger on either side of the ball. Drafting Rolando McClain may be the beginning of a truly effective defensive unit. The Bad: Though the Raiders drafted a pair of linemen in the draft, they did nothing to address their immediate concerns. Jason Campbell will need time if he is to be an effective leader on this team. There are also some holes in the secondary that could haunt the Raiders. They will need a solid pass rush if they want their DBs (besides Nnamdi) to be effective. The Ugly: The RBs on this team need to show up and prove something this year. Michael Bush needs to prove that he can be an every down back while Darren McFadden just needs to prove he even has a pulse. If they can't run the ball, this team won't be able to make any significant strides.
Kansas City Chiefs: 8-8 (7-9/9-7) 3rd Place AFC West (miss the playoffs) - The Good: The Chiefs have had a great offseason. Adding veterans and a rookie to the line should help both immediately and long term. Adding Thomas Jones will help preserve Jamaal Charles and provide a two-headed attack that teams will struggle to defend. Eric Berry is a key addition on defense as he could contend with McClain for DROY. The Bad: The defense is almost the exact same as it was last season. There was no true upgrade in talent at NT, ILB, or S. The middle of the field appears to be the weakness of this defensive unit. There is also very little depth at WR. 5 of the Chiefs 7 draft picks figure to start or see significant playing time this season. The Ugly: Matt Cassel has to prove that he was worth the money. There are no excuses this year. Coach Haley is banking on a lot of self improvement from players such as Dwayne Bowe, Derrick Johnson, Ron Edwards, Tyson Jackson, and Glenn Dorsey. There are also high expectations for rookies Eric Berry, Kendrick Lewis, Dexter McCluster, Javier Arenas, and Tony Moeaki. If this team wants to improve, they will have to find a fire that has not existed in KC (outside of the BBQ pits) since Dick Vermeil left.
Denver Broncos: 5-11 (6-10/4-12) 4th Place AFC West (miss the playoffs) - The Good: Denver's roster features some marquee names that provide both talent and leadership. Josh McDaniels has a vision for this team and is surrounding himself with the players he wants. The Bad: It seems that if you are a leader or talented player on this roster, you are going to get hurt. The current injured list includes Elvis Dumervil, Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, Chris Kuper, Ryan Clady, and (rumored) Lendale White. This is not a good situation for the Broncos to have facing them as they look to rebuild. There also doesn't appear to be any significant improvement to a defense that fell apart in the second half of last season. And serious questions remain about the talent at WR. The Ugly: The Broncos are in makeover status so an immediate improvement wasn't expected. Their success will probably revolve around the injured players. How fast they recover and whether or not the play at the same level as before the injuries will be key. McDaniels also made a couple of possible career depending decisions on draft day. He did a lot of moving to get what many felt were reaches with Demaryius Thomas and Tim Tebow. At least one of them will have to see early success if McDaniels doesn't want to be written off by a majority of the media and NFL fans. There will be some obvious questions now at RB with (possibly) three players injured and the Broncos having jettisoned three others. The other major question is at QB. Clearly McDaniels doesn't feel that Kyle Orton is the right guy for the job. There is no other explanation for grabbing Brady Quinn in free agency and then drafting Tim Tebow in the first round.
Learn, discuss and debate what's going on with the teams in the NFL's AFC Western Division minus the hate, immaturity and stupidity found on the ESPN Blog or anywhere else.
chief i think ur wrong about significant talent improvement on defense as far as SD is concerned. Look waht denver did with one of the leagues worst defenses from 2008, virtually no talent improvement and they were still the best for 6-7 weeks, and the dramatic fall off was more due to the offenses ineptitude in holding the ball. even without jamal, we still have big bodies on the front and the news about the secondary just gets better and better, so i expect something dramatic from our defense, but thats just me, and i think we'll win more than 10 games.
ReplyDeleteFor San Diego, they didn't really lose anything in getting rid of Cromartie or Williams, but they didn't add anyone of significance either. I expect the defense to remain right where it did last year, which wasn't good enough against the Jets.
ReplyDeleteAs for Denver's defense, take a look at the scores. They went from holding teams to under 20 in five consecutive games to giving up 30 or more four different times (one of those to the offensively inept Chiefs) after the bye week. They finished pretty well in stats as far as defense goes because of their early success in holding teams to little or nothing. But they also finished 26th against the run. That's not a system I want my team to follow.
im not talkin about the defensive system, just making the comparison as in look they didnt add anyone after 08 and were awesome (even if for a little bit), why cant we do essentially the same thing?? and hopefully our offense should have a new found ability to hold the ball for longer periods of time, which is essentially what caused the fallout of mike nolans defense. again i expect dramatic things from the defense, its been to long.... and aside from 1 or 2 plays the d was fine vs the jets, ugh i wont get into that bcuz then u'll just say it shold have never gone to the kicker
ReplyDeleteGood analysis citadel. Very thorough and concise. I agree with a large chunk of your comments and only disagree with a handful. Concerning the Chargers, you nailed it. With the Raiders, again I think you got it pegged right. If Tom Cable figures out what he has in Michael Bush then watch out... you could have a fantasy superstar! The d-line needs to show up and help out that secondary. With the Chiefs, I think the safety position received a major boost with the selection of Berry. The secondary is the obvious strength of the defense. On offense, the Chiefs O-line is dramatically improved and should give Cassel enough time to find receivers downfield. With the Broncos... well, they have a lot of growing to do. This season is most likely a growing pains sort of year. I expect Tebow to start by midseason and he will gain valuable experience and prove a lot of the critics wrong.
ReplyDeleteMy predictions to follow in a moment... got a beer to finish.
Okay, so... I really don't like making predictions because I think they can be silly sometimes. But for sheer entertainment value and also for the chance to look like a complete fool in February, here are my predictions:
ReplyDelete1. Chargers 10-6/12-4 - My Bolts have an easy schedule. They will be the class of the division again but I fear they won't go deep into the playoffs. A wildcard berth will generate a win then a loss in the divisional round. A divisional berth will result in a hard fought home victory then a tough loss in the Championship game.
2. Chiefs 9-7/8-8 - I like the Chiefs and what they have done this offseason. I've said all along this team is on the upswing and will surprise the NFL this season. I think in 2011 they will be a legitimate AFC West crown contender if not a threat to go deep into the playoffs.
3. Raiders 8-8/7-9 - Like the Chiefs this group is moving in the right direction. Glory in Raider Nation will be restored and the Raiders will, like the Chiefs, be legitimate AFC West crown contenders in the near future.
4. Broncos 4-12/6-10 - The Broncos are trying to rebuild a very proud franchise. But some early camp injuries are derailing the season before it has a chance to begin. Tebow will be a success in this league... I believe it. But not this year and maybe not next year. But for now, this team has a lot of growing to do and a lot of adversity to overcome. The cream will rise to the top with this squad and a lot of the dead branches will be trimmed next offseason.
That's all I've got... It's pretty much meaningless but take it for what it is worth...
:-)